During the week 14 rates in Azov’s region have continued sluggish decline. Traders consider such negative tendency (approximately -2 usd pmt per week) to be caused by weak purchase power of Turkish Importers due to issues with lira and obvious overstocking of local storage facilities, followed by sharp drop of grains demand on Turkish inner market.
According to market participants, it may take freight to settle on 20 usd bss Rostov – Marmara voyage to reach the cargo flow intensity we’ve experienced in March.
Shippers of Azov-Don area note increased demand for goods on FOB Kavkaz basis, which sustains grain export prices. Should this tendency live on, Charterers may soon face lack of russian-flagged tonnage and growth of rates for lighterage jobs.
Mid-Volga area are yet embraced in ice, sufficient for postpone of navigation start till week 16 at best. All-in-all rates for voyages to NIP have not stopped their fall, which allows Charterers to begin negotiations of parcels ex river ports with dramatically lowered idea.
Caspian basin, despite the ongoing Iranian embargo on wheat import, has seen some increase of Traders activity. Several Exporters are engaged in concluding long-term contracts, which gives ground for considerations of soon embargo removal. Freight level for voyage ex Astrakhan to NIP has reached 36 usd pmt on week 14.
As commonly expected, main driver to change the both Azov and Caspian market in the short run may be currency rates. After the recent introduction of sanctions from USA, ruble stability swayed. In only 4 days (6-10 of April) USD/RUR ratio have surpassed the 60 mark, first time since November 2017. In case ruble shall continue to drop, Traders may receive additional Impulse to reinforce the export.